Last week we went 9-6 in our straight up picks, and again we went 3-1 in our picks ATS. Our picks ATS were a fantastic 3-0 in the morning games, but the Cowboys ruined our fun… That brings our total on the year to 102-61-1 straight up and 25-14 ATS. This week I will be doing something different, and I will only be giving my Thanksgiving picks out early instead of doing the full Thursday and Sunday slate. Happy Thanksgiving and let's get ready to make some money.
Once again we get to watch an abysmal Lions team play on Thursday for Thanksgiving. This should be a tradition we end this year. Wouldn't it be great to have a full slate of games with teams that are actually competing? This game is really tough to figure out and truly could go either way. Both teams may be starting backup QBs, as well as having injuries on either side of the ball. I just feel this game means slightly more to the Lions than it does to the Bears. The Bears look like they want their head coach to be fired, while the Lions seemingly play hard in every matchup (even though they've lost every game except for a tie). The Lions are a surprising 6-4 ATS even though they have zero wins, while the Bears are 4-6 ATS. If I could stay away from this game I would, but for the sake of my picks I have to choose someone. I think that the Bears just simply have the better team, but I like the Lions at home to pull off an upset. Home underdogs cover 60% of the time, so the math says take the Lions. Give me the Lions +3.
Pick: Lions / Lions +3
The Raiders have lost three straight while the Cowboys have also dropped two of their last three. The Raiders could not stop Joe Mixon last week so they have a tall task in trying to stop Ezekiel Elliott this week. You could make a reality TV show about the Raiders this year and the drama they have been through. From Gruden, to the Ruggs tragedy, the Raiders have been far from a perfect team all year. I think the Cowboys bounce back in this one even though they may be without their top two receivers. Oh did I add that the Cowboys are 6-1 ATS the spread at home this year? I would buy a point to be safe on this spread. I like the Cowboys -6.5.
Pick: Cowboys / Cowboys -6.5
This bet is one that I’m very confident in this week. This spread would go into my picks ATS this week if it weren't for the special circumstances of Thanksgiving. After getting absolutely routed by the Colts last week the Bills are looking to bounce back which they have done very well this year. The Bills seemingly blow out the next team after a disappointing performance every time. The Saints simply have too many injuries right now for me to trust them in any aspect. I think Josh Allen has a great primetime performance. Give me the Bills -6.
Pick: Bills / Bills -6